Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets

Investors should listen to Tolstoy, not Trump

In his novel, “War and Peace,” Leo Tolstoy rants at the idiocy of the intelligentsia for providing simplistic descriptions of the causes of events. The view that France invaded Russia because Napoleon gave the order and as a result, 600,000 people followed him across... read more

Donald Trump versus the bond market

The bond market reacted decisively to Donald Trump’s success in the U.S. presidential election. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 1.86% on November 8th to 2.37% on November 25th. Trump’s promise to invest $550 billion in infrastructure over the next decade in... read more

Did the Markets Really Fail to Predict BREXIT?

The recent BREXIT vote should be a wake-up call for investors. The assumption that markets provide greater insight into the probability of certain events occurring was flawed. The betting markets along with the foreign exchange and equity markets were all signalling a... read more

The Phillips Curve is Horizontal

The jobs report announced on March 4, 2016 proved to be surprising for many. The S&P 500, which was introduced on that date in 1957, seemed unclear on how best to respond to it. The U.S. economy added an extra 242,000 jobs, with unemployment remaining at 4.9%.... read more