Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets

Donald Trump versus the bond market

The bond market reacted decisively to Donald Trump’s success in the U.S. presidential election. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 1.86% on November 8th to 2.37% on November 25th. Trump’s promise to invest $550 billion in infrastructure over the next decade in... read more

Did the Markets Really Fail to Predict BREXIT?

The recent BREXIT vote should be a wake-up call for investors. The assumption that markets provide greater insight into the probability of certain events occurring was flawed. The betting markets along with the foreign exchange and equity markets were all signalling a... read more

The Phillips Curve is Horizontal

The jobs report announced on March 4, 2016 proved to be surprising for many. The S&P 500, which was introduced on that date in 1957, seemed unclear on how best to respond to it. The U.S. economy added an extra 242,000 jobs, with unemployment remaining at 4.9%.... read more

Reflections on the Fisher Effect

David Glasner in a recent blog post referred to a paper he wrote in January 2011 on The Fisher Effect Under Deflationary Expectations. The paper is well worth reading for anyone interested in the interplay between monetary policy, asset prices and the recent financial... read more