Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets
The Interest Rate Confusion Returns
The late economist Axel Leijonhufvud noted in a 1979 essay that the theory of the interest rate mechanism remains at the centre of the confusion in modern macroeconomics. All the inconclusive quarrels, he argued, largely stem from this source. While financial market...
Investors should stop pretending uncertainty can be explained away by market narratives
Investors often fail to distinguish between uncertainty and risk. This is partly because there is an army of strategists advising investors how to manage risk through market narratives. These narratives attempt to explain away the complexity of the world we live in,...
The US economy: down but definitely not out
The US equity market has had a surprising rebound this summer; rallying more than 17% between mid-June to mid-August. The narrative for the first half of the year had been focused on a pending recession, given that a sustained decline in economic output tends to...
Pension fund deficits and flawed approaches to asset allocation
Making the right asset allocation decision is critical if pension funds are to generate sufficient returns to meet their liabilities. A recent analysis by GlobalSWF indicates that US public pension funds are only 75% funded and face a $1.3 trillion shortfall. Other...
Inflation and the Fragility of the Liberal International Order
Private property plays a central role in liberal democracies as it protects a company’s right to contract with other agents in order to generate an income stream from its assets. Knowing that financial claims from contracts will be protected facilitates the trading of...
Investors need to be wary of Biden’s increasing protectionist stance
The “Three Amigos Summit” on 18 November in Washington D.C. appeared to reinforce Joe Biden’s shift towards Trumpian protectionism. President Biden refused to budge from his position of using tax credits to support domestic production of electrical vehicles,...