For the last few years, UK productivity analysts including myself have been arguing that the OBR has been too optimistic with regards to its productivity forecasts. Hence the downgrade in the recent OBR report from 1.3% down to 1.0% per annum was unsurprising. This...

Between 2014 and 2024, global peacefulness declined to such an extent that there are now 56 active conflicts, more than at any time since World War II. The deterioration of the security environment ought to be understood in the broader context of the decline of the...

Since President Trump took office on 20th January 2025, the US has been the worst performing stock market of the entire G7. While Trump likes to shoot from the hip when it comes to economic policy, investors in US assets it seems, do not appreciate this approach. The...

During the US presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to fix the economy by eliminating inflation, cutting taxes and increasing tariffs. This raises a challenge for asset allocators as to how these policies will hit expected asset returns in the short...

Since the federal funds rate hit 5% in March 2023, the bond market has been battling it out with the central bank. The market assumed that the US economy was heading for recession and required more accommodative monetary conditions. This negative outlook has been...

When Ronald Reagan said that the nine most dangerous words in the English language were “I’m from the government and I’m here to help,” he provoked a storm of protest from all sides of the political debate. Governments clearly can help drive competitiveness through...