The recent BREXIT vote should be a wake-up call for investors. The assumption that markets provide greater insight into the probability of certain events occurring was flawed. The betting markets along with the foreign exchange and equity markets were all signalling a...

The jobs report announced on March 4, 2016 proved to be surprising for many. The S&P 500, which was introduced on that date in 1957, seemed unclear on how best to respond to it. The U.S. economy added an extra 242,000 jobs, with unemployment remaining at 4.9%. The...

David Glasner in a recent blog post referred to a paper he wrote in January 2011 on The Fisher Effect Under Deflationary Expectations. The paper is well worth reading for anyone interested in the interplay between monetary policy, asset prices and the recent financial...

The oasis of calm that investors have become addicted to since the advent of quantitative easing has been rudely interrupted. Between July 20th and August 25th, the S&P Composite fell by more than 12% , triggered by the drop in the Shanghai stock exchange of nearly...

The Reserve Bank of India cut the policy repo rate by another 0.25% on June 2 to 7.25%. The market reaction sent the SENSEX index of Indian equities down by 660 points - nearly two and a half per cent. Bank governor Raghuram Rajan commented that he remained concerned...

The variability of emerging market performance implies that asset allocation be best approached from a country perspective. An analysis of the ex post Wicksellian Differentials and ex ante signals of BRIC countries highlights continuing diverging trends with the...