by Thomas Aubrey | Sep 1, 2021 | Uncategorized
Credit cycle investors have performed on par with the S&P 500 since the beginning of March, with an allocation to US banks followed by US Industrials generating returns of just over 16%. This performance beat Nasdaq, which increased by just under 12%, global...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 2, 2021 | Uncategorized
Credit cycles play a key role in the pricing of financial assets. Throughout history, periodic jumps in default rates – from the railroad crash in the late 1870s, the bank panic of the 1890s and the Great Depression, through to the dot-com crash and global...
by Thomas Aubrey | Mar 11, 2021 | Uncategorized
US equity investors in the six year period between 1973 and 1978 would have made no nominal return on their investment, with inflation averaging 7.7%. Hence it is understandable that investors remain so concerned about the potential impact of a higher rate of rising...
by Thomas Aubrey | Nov 27, 2020 | Uncategorized
Paul Kennedy, in his 1987 book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, forecast that Japan would continue to outperform the U.S. and Europe economically through greater exploitation of technology, while freeriding on the U.S. defence budget. In February 1988, the New...
by Thomas Aubrey | Aug 27, 2020 | Uncategorized
Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke of the need for a new grouping of democracies to face what he argued was the increasing threat to freedom from China. While Pompeo didn’t give much away on how this might be approached, he did recognise that it...
by Thomas Aubrey | May 26, 2020 | Uncategorized
The American economist Paul Samuelson once remarked that investing should be more like watching paint dry. If you want excitement, he noted, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. Samuelson’s comment in many respects strikes at the heart of the asset allocation versus stock...
