Thomas Aubrey and Giacomo Le Pera have a new paper on measuring systemic risk to improve credit portfolio management The paper argues that the correlation calculations embedded in the Basel rulebook are unable to provide useful estimates of the systemic risk factor...

Ben Bernanke today spoke about how the Fed closely monitors asset prices. In his speech he stated: “For the purpose of safeguarding financial stability, we are less concerned about whether a given asset price is justified in some average sense than in the possibility...

At the beginning of 2013, Credit Capital Advisory put out a note on asset allocation and how credit based disequilibrium models can help understand the general direction of equity price movements. This was the general summary: The ex-ante estimates for 2013 show a...

The Chancellor of the Exchequer's big new idea is to more than double the amount of subprime loans in order to expand home ownership. This will of course lead to a housing boom, fuelled by falling credit standards, and then a spectacular bust costing the UK tax payer...

When Moodys downgraded the UK on Friday, it argued that mounting debt levels in a low growth environment have impaired the sovereigns’ ability to contain negative shocks. So was the downgrade a direct result of the UK’s “austerity” approach and would “stimulus” have...

Preliminary estimates of the ex-ante natural rate of interest for 2013 - based on a credit disequilibrium framework - highlights positive profit growth for the United States. However, the ex-ante estimates for the United Kingdom imply a continued poor outlook for...