The rate of profit growth appears to have stalled in the United States resulting in declining equity valuations. However, the extent of the cumulative credit process in this credit cycle implies a much lower level of asset correlation than in previous cycles. The...

The cumulative Wicksellian process that has been developing since 2009 has led to an increase in demand for more timely credit cycle signals. As a result Credit Capital Advisory has now launched its ex ante signals which update on a quarterly basis, a month before...

The equilibrium rate of interest in the history of economics has been a surprisingly controversial topic. In a brilliant essay [from 1979] the Swedish economist Leijonhufvud stated that “the theory of the interest rate mechanism is the center of the confusion in...

I have had a number of requests recently to update the investment return tables generated from using a credit disequilibrium approach to investing. The ex ante model which begins back in 2001 continues to outperform the market significantly by avoiding being in...

Over the last few months there have been numerous comments on blogs on the nature of inflation in historical periods, particularly that inflation has always been with us to a certain extent. The below chart demonstrates that this is clearly not the case. Using the...

Paul Krugman recently responded to Gavyn Davies’ excellent post on Keynesian Yellen vs Wicksellian BIS. Krugman argued that if an interest rate is set too low the economy overheats and we have accelerating inflation. However as Krugman points out there is no sign of...