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Why Robert Peston’s argument on “China’s inevitable crash” is flawed

by admin | Feb 19, 2014 | Uncategorized

Robert Peston recently made a documentary on why China’s credit binge will lead to another global financial crisis. His thesis is simple. China’s credit growth is excessive and if it continues it will result in an inevitable crash echoing the recent subprime bubble...

2014 Asset Allocation – A Credit Disequilibrium Approach

by admin | Feb 10, 2014 | Uncategorized

US market expected to maintain growth in capital values despite negative outlook for equities in other markets 2013 Model Predictions vs Actuals Credit disequilibrium asset allocation modelling proved to be extremely effective in forecasting asset value trajectories...

China’s falling rate of profit – not its ability to sustain GDP growth – is what investors need to be concerned about

by admin | Jan 25, 2014 | Uncategorized

A neo-Wicksellian analysis of the Chinese economy highlights that China is not experiencing a classic Wicksellian cumulative process as Japan did in the 1980s. A more pressing concern for investors ought to be the falling rate of profit. It is however plausible that...

Finally a measure of gross output will be released in 2014

by admin | Dec 7, 2013 | Uncategorized

Starting in spring 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release gross output data which is a measure of sales across all stages of production. This new data set, which has been championed by the economist Mark Skousen, will provide a more complete picture of what...

Revolution in passive index design could make passive the new active

by admin | Oct 31, 2013 | Uncategorized

Passive investing in market index funds has been labelled a “parasitic” business. However, re-designing index rules to account for corporate moves such as mergers and acquisitions could make passive the new active. This year’s Nobel Prize in...
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Highlights

  • Why the OBR will downgrade UK productivity growth – Again
  • Investors need to start embracing the new global economic disorder
  • The ‘Great Deceleration’ goes global
  • Trump’s Tariffs: Short term gain, long term pain
  • The bond market’s ongoing battle with the Federal Reserve

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