US market expected to maintain growth in capital values despite negative outlook for equities in other markets 2013 Model Predictions vs Actuals Credit disequilibrium asset allocation modelling proved to be extremely effective in forecasting asset value trajectories...

A neo-Wicksellian analysis of the Chinese economy highlights that China is not experiencing a classic Wicksellian cumulative process as Japan did in the 1980s. A more pressing concern for investors ought to be the falling rate of profit. It is however plausible that...

Starting in spring 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release gross output data which is a measure of sales across all stages of production. This new data set, which has been championed by the economist Mark Skousen, will provide a more complete picture of what...

Passive investing in market index funds has been labelled a "parasitic" business. However, re-designing index rules to account for corporate moves such as mergers and acquisitions could make passive the new active. This year's Nobel Prize in Economics was a good one...

At a conference in 1995, Rex Sinquefield – who set up the first S&P index fund in 1973, quipped that it was only the North Koreans, Cubans and active fund managers who didn’t believe that markets worked. The overwhelming evidence that the vast majority of active fund...

Thomas Aubrey and Giacomo Le Pera have a new paper on measuring systemic risk to improve credit portfolio management The paper argues that the correlation calculations embedded in the Basel rulebook are unable to provide useful estimates of the systemic risk factor...